Summary - April 2025 (CONY, MSTY, YMAX)

 Introduction

April 2025 extended the multi-month decline in market volatility across all YieldMax ETFs, with implied volatility (IV30) reducing across the board. This trend reflects broader market sentiment, where risk appetite has returned amid improving US inflation data, a stabilizing labor market, and growing expectations of a Federal Reserve cut as early as June 2025.

That being said, a surprisingly strong April jobs report, showing an addition of 177,000 jobs and an unemployment rate holding steady at 4.2% has tempered expectations for an imminent rate cut. The robust labor market suggests that the Fed may delay easing monetary policy, which could influence option premiums and dividend yields in the coming months.

Despite this, the portfolio has generated $583.78 in net dividends for April. While this represents a slight decline from March, it underscores the resilience of the YieldMax strategy in a cooling volatility environment. As we move into May, careful balancing and strategic positioning will be key to navigating the evolving market landscape.

What Happened?

US Equity Market

The S&P 500 closed April at 5,515.72, down 10.2% from it's all time high of 6,144.15 set in Feb 2025. The market face broad-based pressure throughout the month, driven by 2 primary developments:

• The announcement of sweeping new US Tariffs in early April 2025, which reignited trade war concerns and triggered a swift market repricing.
• A VIX spike early April, it's highest level since the pandemic, reflecting heightened fear and demand for downside protection.
• A stabilizing end to the month, as investors digested a strong April jobs report, released late in the month, which reinforced the Fed's case to delay interest rate cuts, further cooling investor sentiment.

By April 30, the VIX had cooled, while still elevated, was well below it's early month panic high, signaling, fading volatility even as equity indices remained under pressure.

Cryptocurrency Market

Bitcoin's April trajectory was volatile but ultimately bullish. After dropping to $76,000 in early April, it then rebounded to end the month around $95,600. The recovery was supported by:

• The announcement of a US strategic Bitcoin reserve
• Renewed institutional interest
• Continued positioning of Bitcoin as a digital safe haven amid fiat uncertainty.

However, despite the bounce, BTC's post halving performance lagged behind historical cycles and crypto equities like MSTR and COIN remained under pressure. 

Market Outlook

As we head into May 2025, markets face a delicate balancing act between cooling inflation, robust employment and geopolitical uncertainty. In spite of legitimate concerns about trade disruptions and delayed Fed action, the rapid VIX retracement also suggests that investors are not pricing in prolonged fear.

Portfolio Overview

Transactions and Options Overview

Total deployed in April 2025 : USD 3,245.79

Averaging into MSTY, anticipating IV recovery and capital appreciation potential as Bitcoin and MSTR sentiment rebuild. Average cost remains favorable relative to long term bullish expectations for MicroStrategy and Crypto in general.

Portfolio Breakdown

The portfolio closed April with a total market value of USD 18,194, down from the total invested capital of  $20,771.37, reflecting a net unrealized loss of - USD 2,577.37 (-12.41%). This decline was primarily driven by price depreciation in CONY and YMAX, while MSTY remained the portfolio's relative outperformer.

The portfolio remains heavily weighted in MSTY (76%) as we build towards a 1,000 share position. While unrealized losses in CONY and YMAX weigh in on the total return, dividend income has softened the drawdown. May's strategy will focus on defensive dividend compounding and volatility  re-entry timing.

Lessons from April

• A high VIX doesn't guarantee high YieldMax premiums -  IV30 is the primary income driver
• Bitcoin's price recovery did not lift MSTY premiums - Direction does not equate Volatility

Project Implications and Strategic Adjustments

• Total returns remain positive, despite a -USD 2,577.37 unrealized loss, thanks to $2,625 in dividends and USD 178 in option premiums resulting in a net gain of USD 226 (+1.09%) on invested capital.
• Dividend income has proven resilient, softening the impact of price depreciation in CONY and YMAX. This validates the income-buffer strategy in volatile conditions.
• Option income contribution remains minor (6.8% of income) due to falling IVs. This highlights the portfolio's dependence on dividends, particularly from MSTY to sustain returns

Strategic Adjustments for May 

• MSTY accumulation will continue cautiously

MSTY remains the portfolio's most stable performer and is supported by MSTR's recovery. Further additions are viable below US 25, provided IV remains above 40. To watch for consolidation in MSTR above US 400 before deploying larger tranches.

• No addition to CONY and YMAX for now

Both remain in capital decline with shrinking IV due to pressure from COIN and tech-linked softness respectively. 

• Deploy options strategically during IV spikes

Favor short duration cash secured puts or covered calls only when IV pops above 50 particularly around:

• April CPI (Release May 13) 
• Federal Reserve Events / Macroeconomic Data release.
• Crypto related market catalysts

Conclusion

The MSTR rebound in April justifies continued confidence in MSTY, but low IV across the board calls for more precision and less passive compounding. May strategy will lean into tactical accumulation, option spikes and watchful re-entry into underperformers only if volatility returns.

📬 Help Improve This Blog

To make this blog more comprehensive, I'm currently seeking:

• 💬 Reader feedback on option strategies or ETF income ideas

• 📈 Requests for visual charts (bar/line graphs of dividends or drawdowns)

• 📊 Suggestions for additional diversification ETFs or hedging tools

• 🧮 Any interest in backtesting or rolling yield projections for CONY/MSTY/YMAX

If there’s anything you’d like to see added, or have specific questions about income ETFs or option strategies, feel free to reach out or drop a comment!

 

Summary – March 2025 (YMAX, MSTY, CONY)

Introduction

March 2025 proved to be a brutal month for markets, and our portfolio wasn't spared. Between surging volatility, crumbling tech valuations, and a sharp crypto correction, the investing environment quickly turned defensive. 

What Happened?

US Equity Market

In the United States, equity markets experienced notable declines.

• The S&P 500 shed 4.6% in the first quarter, marking the worst quarterly performance since 2022.
• The Nasdaq Composite plunged 10.5% during the same period also reflecting investor concerns.
• The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined by 1.3%

Technology were particularly affected, with Tesla and Nvidia experiencing substantial losses of 36% and nearly 20% respectively.

Cryptocurrency Market

The cryptocurrency sector has also mirrored the turbulence seen in equity markets.

• Bitcoin's price tumbled down nearly 25% from its January highs

Market Outlook

The recent market downturns underscore the importance of diversification and strategic asset allocation. Investors should remain vigilant, considering both global economic indicators and geopolitical developments. In the cryptocurrency space, the current volatility may present buying opportunities for long term investors, but caution is advised given the sector's inherent risk.

For YMAX, CONY and MSTY, with the drop in the market, Implied Volatility (IV) surged. This may indicate greater monthly distributions moving forward, which would help cushion the NAV (Price) drop with the stronger yield income.

CONY and MSTY were hit harder, as both COIN and MSTR declined sharply amidst the tech selloff and crypto pullback. In comparison, YMAX held up better as it was diversified across many tech counters.

The following is a breakdown of what transpired in our portfolio, key market insights and strategic adjustments for March 2025.

Portfolio Overview (March 2025)

Transaction & Options Overview

March's trading activity was focused on generating premium income and adjusting positions to align with market conditions. The key option transactions included:

Portfolio Breakdown 

Key Observations & Analysis

• CONY (-49%) Cryto Crash Collateral Damage

March was a nightmare for Coinbase and by extension CONY. As bitcoin's 25% drawdown accelerated by the Bybit hack, centralized exchanges such as COIN faced scrutiny and withdrawal spikes. Lower trading volumes and negative sentiments drove the stock lower, slicing through CONY's NAV despite high premiums and call writings.

• MSTY (-16%) Bitcoin's Whiplash Hits Home

MSTY was spared the worst, but still ended deep in negative territory. MicroStrategy's strategy of holding massive Bitcoin reserves with leverage backfired this month. As BTC slumped, MSTR followed and so did MSTY. The ETF did, however benefit from soaring implied volatility, cushioning the drawdown with substantial option income.

• YMAX (-28%) Tech Gets Tagged

Although YMAX outperformed the others, it wasn't immune. The tech heavy Nasdaq's 10.5% quarterly drop (it's worst since 2022) dragged down YMAX's underlying holdings. However, thanks to it's broader diversification and disciplined call writing strategy, The ETF delivered strong income, softening the blow on total returns.

• Overall portfolio (-28%) loss reflects a month where macro headwinds and sector specific risks collided. 

Lessons from March

• Covered calls work better in a flat or modestly volatile market, but not during sharp drawdowns.
• Crypto-tied ETFs like CONY  and MSTY offer juicy yields, but come with amplified risks. 
• YMAX's diversified structure can offer some shelter, but not immunity. 

Portfolio Implications and Strategic Adjustments

Strategic Adjustments

These changes signal a tactical re-engagement with risk and  potentially a better income trajectory.

Portfolio Implications

March Strategy Paid Off

• The decision to increase allocation captured part of the rebound from oversold levels.
• YMAX and MSTY showed stabilization.

Looking ahead to April 2025

• Bitcoin support at $80k remains key. If breached, expect more downside for MSTY and CONY
• Implied Volatility is still elevated. Excellent for premium income
• Broader markets remain jittery. Look into diversification into CSPX
• Expect modest income recovery in April if tech and crypto stabilize.

📬 Help Improve This Blog

To make this blog more comprehensive, I'm currently seeking:

• 💬 Reader feedback on option strategies or ETF income ideas

• 📈 Requests for visual charts (bar/line graphs of dividends or drawdowns)

• 📊 Suggestions for additional diversification ETFs or hedging tools

• 🧮 Any interest in backtesting or rolling yield projections for CONY/MSTY/YMAX

If there’s anything you’d like to see added, or have specific questions about income ETFs or option strategies, feel free to reach out or drop a comment!

Summary – February 2025 (YMAX, MSTY, CONY)

Introduction

February has been a turbulent month for financial markets, particularly with the crypto currency linked high yield ETF sector. A sharp decline in Bitcoin, stagnation in Ethereum prices and a looming USD $5 billion options expiry were key drivers of  market volatility, leading to heightened uncertainty.

Adding to the complexity, broader economic and regulatory shifts played a significant role. The ongoing US-EU trade conflict, the SEC's decision to dismiss its lawsuit against Coinbase and the USD $1.5 billion Bybit hack further reshaped investor sentiment, intensifying concerns about exchange security and centralized platforms. These events highlight the need for strategic diversification, hedging tactics and a keen awareness of macroeconomic factors.

For CONY, MSTY and YMAX, these factors translated into a challenging month, with notable price declines. However, strong income distribution rates continued to reinforce their long-term appeal, highlighting the resilience of income generating strategies despite short term volatility.

The following is a breakdown of what transpired in our portfolio, key market insights and strategic adjustments for February 2025.

DBS Drops Big Dividends and a New Capital Return Plan - Here’s Why I’m Excited

 DBS Announces Record Profits and Capital Return Plan

As someone who keeps a close eye on DBS groups movements, I was pretty hyped when they dropped their latest financial update. On the February 10, 2025, DBS announced a final dividend on $0.60 per share for Q4 2024 (Ex Date - April 7, 2025). This brings the full year payout to $2.22 per share (a 16% jump) as compared to $1.92 the previous year. Not bad at all!

Now let's talk numbers. I first bought DBS back in September 2020 when it was trading at $19.73. Fast forward to today, with the stock sitting at $45, that's a 228% capital gain on my original investment! The $2.22 annual dividend? That's an 11% yield on my initial cost. Definitely not chump change.

Of course, I didn't just stop there. I've been adding to my position over the years, which bumped up my average cost. So my real dividend yield on cost sits at about 7%, and my capital gain stands at 50.13%. Still, those are some solid numbers for a bank stock, and it just shows that patience pays off in long term investing.

But here's the cherry on top. DBS isn't just stopping at dividends. They also announced plans to introduce a new "Capital Return" dividend of $0.15 per share, paid out quarterly. That's like getting an extra bonus on top of an already sweet deal. Not only does it make DBS more attractive to dividend investors, it also signals confidence in their financial strength, which in all honesty, is exactly what we want to see as shareholders.

So what's next? If DBS keep up a full-year dividend of $2.40 ($0.60 quarterly) and a we factor in a reasonable expected 5% return on investment, that would put my target price for DBS at around $48, meaning there is still a 6.6% upside from the today's price.

Bottom line? DBS has been a winner for me. Strong dividends, solid growth and now an extra capital return. Definitely worth keeping an eye on.

Current Holdings:

Bitcoin Plunges to $91K Today: A Closer Look at the Events Behind the Drop

Bitcoin falls 10% intraday

Bitcoin's price took a dive today (03-Feb-2025) to US $91,057, a drop that left the market scrambling. Here's a breakdown of the events that might have contributed to this dramatic plunge.

• New trade tariffs announced by Trump have created uncertainty in global markets prompting investors to shift towards safe-haven assets.

Bloomberg reported a surge in US Dollar and a forecast for falling stock markets amid these trade tensions, DXY data also confirms that the dollar's strength has increased after the confirmation of the tariffs on Friday.

• Canada, China and Mexico's retaliatory tariffs to further escalate trade tensions

In response to the US Tariffs, China and Mexico have indicated that they would retaliate, and Canada announced counter tariffs, targeting approximately C$ 155 billion US goods which is expected to further strain the long standing trade relations between the 2 nations.

This combined effect has led to a significant strengthening of the US dollar relative to other currencies and as a result, impacted Bitcoin in several ways.

• Risk-off sentiment

When geopolitical or trade tensions rise, investors tend to shift their funds into safer assets. This can lead to the selling of what is considered "riskier" investments including the likes of Bitcoin. Although Bitcoin has sometimes been viewed as a hedge, its volatility also means that in times of uncertainty, investor might choose more traditional safe havens such as gold, putting downward pressure on Bitcoin's price.

• Stronger US Dollar

A stronger US dollar makes assets priced in dollars more attractive, As Bitcoin is currently pegged to US stable coins (namely USDC and USDT) which is priced in US dollars, when the dollar surges, the appeal of Bitcoin to global investors fall, as they see more value in holding cash or dollar-denominated assets rather than a volatile crypto asset. This can contribute to lower demand and a further drop in Bitcoin prices.

• Increased Market Volatility 

The trade tensions and subsequent policy reactions contributed to a broader market uncertainty which can further lead to increase volatility across various asset classes. With many investors and algorithms set to trigger sell orders in turbulent markets, Bitcoin could face rapid sell-offs or liquidations as part of this wider market correction.

All these have created a perfect storm for Bitcoin's 10% plunge today. That being said, at the point of writing, crypto has been known to be subject to knee jerk reactions and as such, this decline may represent a temporary adjustment amid broader economic uncertainty. We will need to watch closely to see if Bitcoin can stabilize or will be subject to larger volatility as the situation develops.